STORM FORECAST - UPDATE
VALID Mon 10 Apr 15:00 - Tue 11 Apr 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 10 Apr 15:25 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Have cancelled the level 1 area across northern and northwestern Balkans. Although it seems likely that storms will develop in the next hours and during the evening, it is not likely that they will be surface-based. St. Pietro-Capiofiume and Pratica di Mare soundings showed a cap that should be think enough to inhibit any surface-based convective development. Current thinking is that some storms will likely develop over the area and may cause some gusty winds and hail as they may become relatively well-organized due to rather strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer. The storms may move into the northern Balkans overnight.
The level 1 area over Estonia and parts of northwerstern Russia has been cancelled as well. A few lightning stikes may still occur with the few storms that have developed. The overall number of storms has been lower than expected and not much potential for further development appears to be present.

DISCUSSION

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